Intraday bias and key Fibonacci levels

Key bearish signals to monitor include:

If buyers regain control and push through 0.9035, the next key technical hurdle lies at 0.9200. This level previously acted as a strong resistance zone, capping upside moves. A decisive break above 0.9223 would open the way for a more sustained bullish trend, potentially targeting the next psychological barrier.

On the flip side, if sellers gain the upper hand and push USD/CHF below 0.8884, downside pressure could intensify. In such a scenario, the next key support level to watch would be 0.8690, which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the same rally. A sustained break below 0.8690 would signal a deeper correction, with further downside potential towards the 0.8444 level.

Bullish scenario: Rebound and resistance break

Should USD/CHF extend losses towards 0.8444, this would signify a deeper shift in sentiment, with the pair erasing a substantial portion of its prior gains. In such a scenario, traders would need to assess whether buyers step in to defend this level or if further weakness could expose new lows. Until a clear reversal signal emerges, the short-term outlook would remain bearish, with the potential for further declines.

At present, the intraday bias for USD/CHF remains tilted to the downside, with traders closely monitoring the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the 0.8374 to 0.9200 rally, which stands at 0.8884. This level serves as an important technical marker, where a strong rebound could reinforce near-term bullish momentum.

A clean break below 0.8884, accompanied by strong bearish momentum, would likely accelerate selling pressure, with traders eyeing further losses towards the 0.8690 level. This support zone is significant, as it represents a deeper retracement of the previous uptrend and could act as a temporary floor for price action. However, if downward momentum persists and 0.8690 fails to hold, the next key downside level to watch would be 0.8444.

• A strong bullish candlestick formation at 0.8884, such as a pin bar or engulfing pattern.
• Increased buying volume accompanying a rebound, signalling strong participation from buyers.
• A decisive daily close above 0.9035, reinforcing the shift in sentiment.

Given the current market conditions, traders should remain flexible and adjust their strategies based on evolving price action. Monitoring intraday momentum around these key levels will be crucial, as any decisive break could set the tone for the next directional move in USD/CHF.

Bearish scenario: Breakdown and downside targets

A potential rebound from the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 0.8884 would be a key signal for a bullish shift in USD/CHF. If buyers step in at this level, a strong recovery could unfold, reinforcing near-term upside potential. In such a scenario, the first key resistance to monitor lies at 0.9035. A convincing break above this level would indicate renewed bullish momentum, opening the door for further gains.

Traders looking for confirmation of a bullish reversal should watch for:

If USD/CHF fails to hold above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 0.8884 and breaks decisively lower, the bearish scenario would gain traction. A move below this level would indicate that sellers remain in control, with downside targets coming into focus. The first critical support in this scenario is located at 0.8690, which corresponds to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 0.8374–0.9200 rally.

• A sustained daily close below 0.8884, confirming the bearish breakdown.
• An increase in selling volume, suggesting strong participation from bears.
• A failure to reclaim lost ground after a breakdown, indicating continued downside pressure.

Conversely, failure to hold above 0.8884 could expose the pair to further downside pressure. A decisive break below 0.8444 would indicate rejection at 0.9223 and shift short-term sentiment towards bearish, with sellers likely targeting the 61.8% retracement level at 0.8690.

Market outlook for USD/CHF

Price action has remained under pressure, with sellers maintaining control below key resistance areas. A sustained move towards 0.8884 could test the strength of bearish momentum, while a strong reaction from this level may provide an early signal for a potential recovery. Traders are also paying attention to intraday volatility, as swift price movements could lead to sharp reversals.

For now, the market sentiment leans cautiously bearish, with downside risks persisting as long as the pair remains under key resistance levels. However, a decisive move above nearby technical barriers would be required to shift the immediate outlook towards a more bullish stance.

Traders are closely monitoring price action around the 0.8884 level, which represents the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 0.8374 to 0.9200 rally. A strong bounce from this support level would reinforce the bullish case, with initial resistance seen at 0.9035. A break above this level would confirm renewed upside momentum, potentially setting the stage for a move towards the 0.9200/0.9223 resistance zone.

Should these conditions align, USD/CHF could gain further traction, with momentum favouring a return to the 0.9200/0.9223 resistance zone. However, failure to clear key resistance levels could see the pair remain in a consolidation phase, leaving the downside risks intact.

Key technical levels and potential scenarios

At present, the intraday bias for USD/CHF remains tilted to the downside, with market participants closely monitoring key technical levels. The primary focus is on the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the rally from 0.8374 to 0.9200, which is situated at 0.8884. This level serves as an important technical marker and could play a role in determining the pair’s short-term direction.

With ongoing market shifts and changing risk sentiment, traders should remain alert to price movements around these critical levels. Intraday volatility could provide trading opportunities, but risk management remains crucial in the current environment.

Beyond 0.9035, the next significant resistance zone is located between 0.9200 and 0.9223. This area represents the recent swing high and a major supply zone where sellers could attempt to regain control. A sustained push above this range would confirm a broader bullish breakout, potentially setting the stage for a continuation of the longer-term uptrend.

A key focus remains on whether price action will find support at this retracement level. Should buyers step in aggressively, the pair may stage a recovery towards the 0.9035 resistance level. A confirmed break above this resistance would strengthen bullish sentiment, opening the door for a potential retest of the critical 0.9200/0.9223 resistance zone.