Monday, 26 August 2024
by BD Banks
PBoC Delayed MLF (Mon): PBoC announced last week
that it has delayed its MLF operation and will conduct it on August 26th.
Instead of the MLF, the PBoC injected CNY 577.7bln via 7-day reverse repos,
while it added that the reverse repo operation that day was meant to counteract
maturing MLF loans, tax payments and government bond issuances. “This
would be consistent with the policy direction to gradually fade MLF as a
guidance to market rates”, said the head of FX and Rates at Oversea-Chinese
Banking Corporation. In response to Reuters asking if the central bank would
shift the timings of MLF operation, the PBoC replied “Future arrangements would
be ‘subject to the actual operation time.’” It’s worth reminding ourselves that
the delayed MLF operation does come after a series of rate cuts in July, with
market watchers suggesting the sequence of the cuts showed a change in the
framework – shifting short-term rates to be the main market-guiding signal. For
reference, China’s benchmark Loan Prime Rates were kept unchanged, as widely expected,
with the 1-year LPR maintained at 3.35% and the 5-year LPR held at 3.85%.
Chinese Industrial Profits (Tue): There are
currently no expectations for July Chinese Industrial Profits, although the
data will be watched for a prognosis of the health of China’s manufacturing
sector. In June, Chinese industrial firms’ profits increased by 3.6% Y/Y,
accelerating from a 0.7% rise in May. Despite the recovery from last year’s
weak performance, profits remain below 2022 levels and far from the record
highs of 2021, according to Bloomberg. NBS at the time suggested the recovery
was hindered by insufficient domestic demand and a challenging international
environment. Analysts at ING said the data “recently recovered to low
single-digit growth but could begin facing some pressures again amid recent
signs of a manufacturing pullback.”
Australian CPI (Wed): Weighted CPI Y/Y is
forecast to tick lower to 3.4% from 3.8%. Desks believe the introduction of
energy rebates by the Commonwealth, Queensland, and Western Australia
governments in July is anticipated to lower electricity bills, with Westpac
predicting a 32% drop in electricity prices for the month – and in turn a
Weighted CPI print of 2.9% – below the market forecast. The Desk says “When
combined with a -2.3%mth fall in auto fuel and flat food, this should see a
-0.6%mth decline in the July Monthly CPI Indicator with the annual pace
dropping sharply from 3.8%yr to 2.9%yr”. From an RBA perspective, the data will
be keenly watched given the recent hawkish tones from the central bank. As a
reminder, the most recent RBA Minutes from the August 5th-6th meeting stated
the board considered the case to raise rates and decided a steady outcome
better balanced the risks and added it is possible cash rate would have to stay
steady for an extended period. RBA Governor Bullock stuck to a hawkish tone at
the post-meeting press conference in which she noted that the board considered
a rate increase and that a cut is not on the near-term agenda, while she also
stated that they are ready to raise rates if needed and that the pricing of
cuts for the next six months does not align with the board.
Nvidia Earnings (Wed): The consensus expects
Nvidia to report EPS of 0.63 per share, on revenues of USD 28.35bln. The tech
giant is expected to guide Q3 EPS at 0.69 and Q3 revenue at 31.18bln. For the
full year, Nvidia is expected to guide EPS around 2.70, and revenue of USD
120.14bln. Analysts generally expect Nvidia’s upcoming earnings report to show
strong results due to sustained AI demand, however, there is a little caution
due to potential production delays. Oppenheimer anticipates strong Q2 results
and positive Q3 outlook, driven by datacentre growth. HSBC and Stifel predict
continued strength, despite concerns about potential delays in the Blackwell
series. Susquehanna expects robust results, but notes risks from possible
delays in the GB200. Wells Fargo is focused on long-term growth, especially
from Blackwell and software monetisation, while Barclays highlights
stronger-than-expected supply chain metrics and increased datacentre revenue
forecasts. According to Refinitiv’s data, analysts currently rate Nvidia’s
stock as a Buy, with an average price target of USD 137.41/shr.
Japanese Tokyo CPI (Fri): The release is
typically used as a preview for the mainland metrics released a couple of weeks
after. Core Tokyo CPI is seen remaining at 2.2%, whilst headline CPI is seen
cooling to 1.9% from 2.2% – primarily due to the government’s temporary energy
subsidy program. “However, service sector prices are likely to grow at a faster
pace than in the previous month due to strong wage growth”, according to ING.
The data comes in the context of BoJ normalisation. BoJ Governor Ueda said at
Friday’s parliamentary testimonies that economic indicators released after the
July rate hike, including Q2 GDP and wage data, confirmed the economy was
moving in line with BoJ’s outlook and therefore, the July decision was
appropriate. He added there is no change to the stance that they would adjust
the degree of monetary easing if the price outlook is likely to be achieved.
EZ Flash CPI (Fri): Expectations are for
headline HICP to have pulled back to 2.2% Y/Y in August from 2.6% in July, with
the super-core metric seen pulling back to 2.8% Y/Y from 2.9%. The prior
release saw an uptick in the headline rate to 2.6% Y/Y from 2.5%, with the
increase driven by an uptick in energy inflation. Elsewhere, the widely-watched
services component ticked lower to 4.0% Y/Y from 4.1%. This time around,
analysts at Investec “are pencilling a drop in the headline measure of
inflation to 2.3% Y/Y. This is related to energy given the 4.9% fall in oil
prices in the month and a positive base effect from utility prices”. Its
analysts look for services inflation to remain “sticky” and “do not expect to
see a sustained improvement in until wage growth eases more materially.” As a
reminder, regional releases ahead of the Eurozone-wide metric will give traders
insight into what to expect for Friday’s release. From a policy perspective, a
September rate cut is fully priced with greater interest over how the rate
cutting cycle will proceed thereafter with a total of 64bps of easing seen by
year-end which implies two 25bps rate cuts, and a 56% chance of another 25bps
reduction.
US PCE (Fri): The consensus looks for headline
PCE to rise +0.2% M/M in July (prev. +0.1%). Writing after the release of CPI
and PPI data, WSJ’s Nick Timiraos said forecasters who translate the CPI and
PPI into the PCE expect core prices rose 0.16% M/M in July – which would be
0.2% M/M rounded, matching the June metric. Timiraos added that this would hold
the 12-month rate steady at 2.7% Y/Y, the six-month annualised rate would fall
to 2.7% from 3.4% in June, and the three-month annualised rate would fall to 1.9%
from 2.3%. Capital Economics says the CPI and PPI data show a firm
disinflationary trend, and supports the case for the Fed to cut rates by 25bps
in September, despite a potential slight annual increase in core PCE inflation.
It said that while some categories, like rent and motor vehicle insurance,
showed higher prices, the data overall suggests that inflationary pressures are
moderating, but not enough to justify a larger cut. Analysts are generally of
the view that the Fed will firm its view after seeing the August jobs report
(due September 6th).
Australian Retail Sales (FRI): Retail Sales data
for July is seen ticking lower to 0.2% from 0.5%. The report will provide the
first official data on the impact of the “stage 3” tax cuts on consumer
spending introduced in July. Westpac’s Card Tracker suggests that consumers are
mostly saving their income gains, resulting in only a modest increase in
spending. Westpac however forecasts the print at 0.8% – above market consensus
– “On balance we expect retail sales to post a 0.8% gain in July, likely to be
viewed as a subdued result given the context [of tax relief]”, the desk says.
This article originally appeared on Newsquawk.
This article was written by Newsquawk Analysis at www.forexlive.com.