The USDCAD broke above the 2020 high price on Wednesday of last week at 1.3978, and that helped to kickstart additional gains on Thursday and Friday. The price of the USDCAD has been up for six consecutive days. The low price from November 7 reached 1.3843. The high price on Friday extended to 1.41049.

In trading today, the high price fell short of the high price from Friday’s trade, reaching high price today at 1.4102 and rotated to the downside. The price is trading near the low for the day at 1.40629, but still remains comfortably above the rising 100-hour moving average at 1.40196.The price moved above the 100-hour moving average back on November 8 near 1.3892. Going forward, take a move below the 100-hour moving average to give the sellers more confidence. The low price from Friday reached 1.4032 which will be a closer target for sellers today.

Looking at the 5-minute chart, the price fell below its 100 and 200 bar MAs currently at 1.4087 and 1.4084 respectively. Both moving averages are now moving lower. It would take a move back above those moving averages to give the buyers firm control once again. Absent that and the sellers are “in play” for more corrective probing (but sellers have work to do including getting below the 100 hour moving average).

Helping the Canadian dollar today is oil futures which are up by over two dollars in trading today.

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USDCAD Market Analysis

Key Points:

1. Breakout: USDCAD broke above 2020 high (1.3978) on Wednesday, driving gains.

2. Six-day streak: Price increased for six consecutive days.

3. Friday’s high: 1.41049.

4. Current price: 1.40629, above rising 100-hour moving average (1.40196).

5. Support levels:

1. 100-hour moving average: 1.40196

2. Friday’s low: 1.4032

Outlook:

1. Buyers’ control: Price above 100-hour moving average.

2. Sellers’ target: Break below 100-hour moving average.

3. Resistance: 100 and 200 bar MAs on the 5-mionute chart (1.4087, 1.4084).

4. Oil futures boost: Supporting Canadian dollar.

Actionable Insights:

1. Watch for break below 1.40196 to favor sellers.

2. Recovery above 1.4087/1.4084 MAs to regain buyers’ control.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.